Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
